Back to the EV Calcs
Ok so in part to make good on my post a few days ago and also because I can always use more practice at these calculations, I'd like to go ahead and calculate some different amounts of money I make with a big draw when taking into consideration different fold equity percentages.
If you recall, the hand in question was my 9
8 vs. villain's A
J
on a J T 3 board. The effective stacks will be considered a standard buyin ($200). Previously we examined the fold equity needed to simply break even on the turn. We found we only need him to fold about 30% of the time, just to break even. Today, we'll look at the our EV at various fold percentages.
On the flop, there was $19 in the pot and I lead for $18, so there's $37 in the pot when action is on Villain. Let's assume that he'd like to "protect his hand" with pot sized raise, $73 (19 + 18 + 18 + 18). Had Villain done this in the actual hand, I would have insta-pushed my stack ($176), or, $103 more for him to call. With a pot equity of 56% I'm feeling very good about my spot.
What's my EV if villain folds 0% of the time? 25% ? 50%? 75%? Let's find out. (Note: See the Feb 9th posting for an explanation of the formula used below).
Villain folds 0%:
EV = 110(0) + (1)(.56 * [110 + 103] - [.44 * 176])
EV = 0 + (119.28 - 77.44)
EV = $41.84
Villain folds 25%:
EV = $110(.25) + (.75)(.56 * [110 + 103] - [.44 * 176])
EV = 27.5 + (.75)(119.28 - 77.44)
EV = 27.5 + 31.38
EV = $58.88
Villain folds 50%:
EV = $110(.50) + (.50)(.56 * [110 + 103] - [.44 * 176])
EV = $55 + $20.92
EV = $75.92
Villain folds 75%:
EV = $110(.75) + (.25)(.56 * [110 + 103] - [.44 * 176])
EV = $82.5 + $10.46
EV = 92.96
So there you have it. It's pretty clear that the more he folds the better, but even if he calls 100% of the time, we're still making $41.84.
I played about 1300 hands of $200 NL 6max on Tuesday and had some more swings. I ended up down a little more than a buyin. I didn't get any hands in tonight though.
If you're interested, check out an article on my pop. He just took the Defensive Line position at Southern Miss University.
If you recall, the hand in question was my 9
8 vs. villain's A J on a J T 3 board. The effective stacks will be considered a standard buyin ($200). Previously we examined the fold equity needed to simply break even on the turn. We found we only need him to fold about 30% of the time, just to break even. Today, we'll look at the our EV at various fold percentages.On the flop, there was $19 in the pot and I lead for $18, so there's $37 in the pot when action is on Villain. Let's assume that he'd like to "protect his hand" with pot sized raise, $73 (19 + 18 + 18 + 18). Had Villain done this in the actual hand, I would have insta-pushed my stack ($176), or, $103 more for him to call. With a pot equity of 56% I'm feeling very good about my spot.
What's my EV if villain folds 0% of the time? 25% ? 50%? 75%? Let's find out. (Note: See the Feb 9th posting for an explanation of the formula used below).
Villain folds 0%:
EV = 110(0) + (1)(.56 * [110 + 103] - [.44 * 176])
EV = 0 + (119.28 - 77.44)
EV = $41.84
Villain folds 25%:
EV = $110(.25) + (.75)(.56 * [110 + 103] - [.44 * 176])
EV = 27.5 + (.75)(119.28 - 77.44)
EV = 27.5 + 31.38
EV = $58.88
Villain folds 50%:
EV = $110(.50) + (.50)(.56 * [110 + 103] - [.44 * 176])
EV = $55 + $20.92
EV = $75.92
Villain folds 75%:
EV = $110(.75) + (.25)(.56 * [110 + 103] - [.44 * 176])
EV = $82.5 + $10.46
EV = 92.96
So there you have it. It's pretty clear that the more he folds the better, but even if he calls 100% of the time, we're still making $41.84.
I played about 1300 hands of $200 NL 6max on Tuesday and had some more swings. I ended up down a little more than a buyin. I didn't get any hands in tonight though.
If you're interested, check out an article on my pop. He just took the Defensive Line position at Southern Miss University.
posted by WiltOnTilt at 9:45 PM
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