Well if you've been reading, it's been a couple days since I've updated. I went on a pretty nice run friday-monday in the NL200 games...winning about 7 buyins in that stretch. I had some pretty sick rivers in my favor. Most of catches were before the money went in, or when the large percentage of the money went in it after I hit my hand. It does feel good catching a nice card here or there, considering it often feels like my opponents are constantly catching on me. The next time I get snagged by a gutshot on the river, I'll think back to this post.

I had been holding off on posting because I wanted to do more EV calculations. Unfortunately because of increased work responsibilities, I had a bunch of time earmarked for work and I didn't get around to any number crunching. Perhaps tomorrow.

Some of you may or may not know that I'm in Wichita, KS for the next few weeks. It's my first gig doing work with Cognos products. Cognos is kind of a hot item right now and I really need the experience, unfortunately I pretty much suck at it right now. There will be some growing pains I'm sure. Hopefully the client will understand.
So here was a sort of interesting hand with a river decision that comes up once in a while. Sometimes I make the error of not maximizing the river when I'm pretty sure my opponent either has a big hand or nothing. An argument could be made for checkraising all in on the turn, however, I think my line looks a bit more suspicious to a weak player. In all honestly, it probably doesn't matter on this hand, as Villain is going broke close to 100% in this spot (turn or river).

Effective Stacks: $167
Villain is 44/12.

I pick up 4 4 in the SB. Villain limps UTG. CO poster checks, Button raises to $10. I call. BB folds, Villain calls. Poster folds. 3 to the flop:

Flop ($34) 4 J 2

I lead for $22 to try to build a pot and trap the loose villain in between me and the preflop raiser. Villain calls. PFR folds.

Turn ($78) J

I check, because the only real draw out there on the flop was 35, unlikely but possible for Villain. His range is weighted heavier towards TP type hands, or possibly something like 88-TT. I figure the J is a good card for him to bluff at if he's weak and obviously a good card for him to "value bet" with as a hand he thinks is best. Essentially he bets many more hands with than he calls in this spot.
Villain bets for $22. A disappointing bet for me. Had he bet closer to pot size, or even 3/4 the pot, he would have been committed and I would have just pushed all in right there. Since he's got $112 left in his stack after his $22 bet, I felt a checkraise all in would allow him to get away from his hand too easily (in hindsight, this guy probably isn't folding... but the principle is true in general against better players) so I figure I'll slowplay and just call...with the plan of pushing nearly all rivers.

River ($122) T

Kind of a scary card since JT is a big possibility for him, however, at this point I've dug my grave with my turn action if he really hit a 4 outer on me. I decide that in this spot he's either got a hand that is calling a push (primarily a Jack) or he's got nothing. Doubtful he'll try to bluff me again on the river since I called his turn bet. So at this point I'll push and pray he's got something to call with... if I check, he's certainly checking behind all his marginal hands... maybe even a weakish J. If I push, perhaps it looks suspicious enough for him to call. I push for $112 (effectively). He calls with KJo, I scoop.

Some of my logic might sound circular in the above paragraphs, and it probably is. I think my line is good against a more solid-ish player. Against this guy I'm probably getting his stack no matter what. I think it's easier for people to convince themselves into a call a big river lead bet with trips than it is to call a turn checkraise...