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Monday, March 31, 2008

Crazy week ahead of me

I've got tons of coaching scheduled for this week, pretty much everyday I'm booked solid in the afternoons and I'm starting with 3 new students this week which is always fun.

I really enjoy coaching and have built up quite a social network of people across the globe with different non-poker talents and interests and it really makes problem solving easy as if I have a question about something I can usually find someone that has real world experience with the answer. My friend Kyle in KC knows this as he has a similar social network at the brick and mortar casino.

This is the first month since I started focusing on heads up NLHE where I'm happy about my results. I started focusing on heads up towards the end of January with sort of crappy results as I was still getting my feet wet a little, but in March I really played well and managed to put together some nice wins at 3/6 and 5/10nl hu. At 10/20nl I pretty much got wrecked, but the funny thing is over half of my 10/20 losses came when I had the HU master himself watching over my shoulder (that's krantz for those of you guys who don't know), so of course I can't feel too bad about that. Also with only 5k hands at HU 10/20nl it's such a small sample size that absolutely anything could happen in that time frame.

I'm still definitely doing some things wrong heads up but I'm feeling very confident in my game these days, especially at 2/4 - 5/10nl. I'm losing money in non-showdown pots which is somewhat disconcerting. I have a few hunches as to why that might be (mostly because I'm game selecting so hard that I'm only playing donks) and I think one of my biggest strengths is bet sizing and inducing action in big pots. Because of that I have to (choose to?) give up a lot in the smaller and medium pots....partially to set up the false sense that they can bully me but also partially because most of the idiots I play against can't fold anything for one or two streets. Either way against most of the people I play against, I feel like my edge comes from them making a critical mistake in a big pot where I am making much better decisions, and that's where my edge comes from.

I plan to work on my small/medium pot game until I feel like I can gain an edge there, especially when playing against better players. I feel I can hold my own and am +EV vs most of the MSNL HU regulars, however once I get a bit better feel for the small/medium pot game I will have an even bigger edge.

Here's my graph from 2/4 to 5/10 heads up results this month:



Unfortunately, here's my 10/20 and 10/25 heads up results this month:



The sick part is I actually range above expectation in terms of "all in ev" at 10/20 (gogo krantz sweating luckbox) but I got coolered a bunch of times and had to fold a lot in big pots (huge non-showdown loss at these stakes) so obviously that's a problem.

Put the graphs together and I ended up about +22k for the month from playing.

Overall a fairly small HU sample this month so I can't get toooo excited about my results as there's a lot of variance HU, but I feel like if I continue to improve and continue to be very selective about who I play against I think I can make some decent money at this form of poker.

Also in April, I'll start KRANTZ's heads up program so I'm very excited about that. If there's anyone that can get me over the hump it's him.

That's all for now...

Aaron

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