EV Calcs - Channeling my inner nerd
This entry is taken from a post I made on CardRunners.com. In that thread, Lou asked if he should call a big overbet on a draw with one card to come. Based on a lot of the responses, it was clear people were missing some things about pot odds and EV, so I made the following post.
Ok, let's talk a little bit about EV calcs and pot odds here. Earlier there was horrendously false statement by someone to the effect of "you should never get your money in as an underdog". Hopefully by the end of this post, you'll see how absolutely silly that is.
Let's first start with my original "of course" example in my earlier post. Why is it my example an "of course I call!" example? In that scenario we're 45% to win. There's $999 in the pot and $1 to call. So what's our EV of call or fold? (you can't raise me, because I'm all in for my last $1).
EV(fold) by definition is 0. You lose/gain nothing more.
In English:
EV(call) = (the amount you get when you have the best hand) minus (the amount you invested when you dont end up with the best hand). We've stated that we're 45% to win.
In math terms:
EV(call) = (45% * $1000) - (55% * $1) .... again just so we're clear this can be read as, 45% of the time you make $999(pot) + $1(my bet) and 55% of the time you lose $1(your call)
EV(call) = $450 - .55 = $449.45, which means your expected value on the $1 call is $449.45.
Duh Wilt, I told you of course I call!
So to answer the second question I posed above, if I'm pushing in with my $1 and my 55% equity, I'm PRAYING you fold, because then I'd win $999. If you call, then I win on average $1000 - $449.45 = $550.55. Again, even though I'm a favorite at 55%, I'm hoping you fold. This should be sooooo obvious, but you'd be shocked how many people screw this up!
So now on to your real example:
Just so we're all on the same page, here's the hand and numbers that I've pieced together from Lou's posts:
We're oop on the turn with 5c6c and the board reads Jx 4c 7c 5x. There's $220 in the pot, and we check. Villain shoves and it's $550 for Lou to call.
We've stated that we have 46% equity in this hand. There's $220 in the middle and it's $550 more for us to call. So that means we need to call $550 to win $770 (note, we don't add our own call into the amount we "win", think of it as we invest X to win Y).
So, same as above:
EV(call) = 46%($770) - 54%($550)
EV(call) = $354.20 - $297
EV(call) = $57.20
We expect to make $57.20 on average when we make this call.
So you might say, gee Wilt, how the hell am I supposed to do this at the table?
Well, the answer is two fold.
1) You should be practicing some of these EV calcs on your own in different scenarios to get a better feel for it
2) You can do a bit of fudging the numbers to make it a bit easier.
46% is close to 50% right? What pot odds would you need for 50% equity? The answer is 1:1 would be break even. You put up 1 to win 1. You break even if you win 1/2 of the time. So, when he bets $550 and we're about 50/50 to win, we know we can call because there's dead money which makes the pot odds on the call 1:1.40 (or, while we're sweating at the table wondering what to do, we know we're better than 1:1 on our call)
So now the question is, how much would he have to bet for this call to be - EV? To figure this out takes a little more work, but it makes sense when you think about it in English terms. For the math all we have to do is substitute X in for what we call, then solve for X where the total is zero. If it's zero, then we know any more than X would be - EV and any less would be +EV. Make sense?
English: 46% of the time and we win his bet(X) + the pot(220) and 54% of the time we'll lose what he bets (X)
In math terms:
0 = .46(220 + X) - .54(X)
.54X = 101.20 + .46X
.08X = 101.20
X = $1265
So this means that he would have to bet $1265 into a $220 pot for our call to be break even.
Let's check our work. If he bets $1265 into a $220 that means we have to call $1265 to win $1485. So let's set up our EV calc again for practice.
EV(call) = .46(1485) - .54(1265)
EV(call) = 683.10 - 683.10
EV(call) = 0
Looks like we were correct! Anything more than his $1265 bet, and we couldn't call profitably. Anything less is a profitable call. Surprise you? This means that our decision here of calling $550 isn't particularly close, as he could bet more than double that and we'd still be correct to call.
It's also worth noting that the image considerations will net you some EV too. Many people (as evidence by this very thread) won't realize this is an easy call. They say/think "WHAT? YOU CALLED ON A DRAW! YOU PUT $ IN THE POT AS AN UNDERDOG? LOL FISH!" I'd bet they'll think twice the next time they want to try to run a big bluff on you "LOL THAT DONKEY CALLED $550 WITH A PAIR OF 5's LAST TIME!"
Something to think about.
Aaron
Southern Miss evades Central Florida 19-14
So pop's boys managed to hold off Central Florida racking up 3 sacks on UCF's final drive to put the nail in the coffin with a 19-14 finish. Our offense didn't convert a 3rd down until midway through the 3rd quarter, yet UCF only had 7 points on the scoreboard. A combination of determination, miscues, and luck allowed Southern Miss to scream to 3-1, with their only loss to top 10 ranked Florida.Besides the freshman phenom, Damion Fletcher, the offense left a lot to be desired. Save for one or two deep passes, they never seemed to click. Our defense came up huge though as USM's linebacker, Lyons, proved to be the difference in the game when he went pick-6 after our punter, (aptly named "Barefoot"), pinned UCF inside the 2 yard line. I'd even like to add that Mom called for the INT -> Touchdown right before that drive, and what do you know, it happened on the first play.As many of you know, watching dad's games is one of my favorite things in the world to do. Next week I get to watch them again as they've got the Tuesday night ESPN2 game vs University of Tulsa, defending Conference USA champs. Last night Southern Miss took down last year's conference runner up, next week it's time to dethrone the champion and move to 4-1.
LOL donkaments and progress update
So I played in the Party Sunday Million as I occasionally do. I must say I could write a script for how every one of those tournaments go. Here's the road map:
1. Chip up early by busting some donk who can't get off of TPNK.
2. Hold steady for a while by getting card dead and watching as the blinds get higher and higher.
3. Steal some blinds and stay alive til the bubble
4. On the bubble after nearly 4 hours of play, get all in preflop with a dominating hand and lose.
5. Rinse and repeat.
#4 this Sunday was AK downed by AJ. As the saying goes, "LOL donkaments"
So on to something a bit more meaningful. Had a decent recovery this weekend for my pathetic month. Last night the tables were sooo juicy but I couldn't seem to put anything together. I bled down about 4 buyins via 1 two outer, twice pushing strong hands on the river when some donk checked the nuts to me, and some other stuff. Somehow I worked my way back up to a paltry +$300 after 2,000 hands...barely getting my head above water.
My graph is pretty ridiculous. Yay variance (click to enlarge):
So since Jay linked my blog on 3-bet.net I should probably add a bit more poker content to this site, so here are two hands from last night that I thought were good/interesting/non-standard. Both are against solid regulars at the 3/6 game.
In the first hand, I decide to play my hand like a draw since he likely doesn't have a hand that can stand much heat and perhaps I can rep a busted draw. Of course standard line is to raise the flop. (pot/bet sizes approximate as I dont have the HH in front of me)
Villain opens from MP, 20/15 or so TAG. I've got two lagtards in the blinds who love to squeeze. I try to induce a squeeze by smooth calling KK on the button, they don't comply. HU pot.
Flop ($45) K
5
8
Villain bets $40, I call.
Turn ($125) 2
(Villain will fire twice with air here a decent amount as the flop is pretty drawy, so might as well let him)
Villain bets $80, I call.
River ($285) 7
Villain checks to induce a bluff, I comply by quickly betting $250. He runs his timer down to 1 and calls. KQo no goot, son.
In the second hand villain's line doesn't make much sense, so I raise. He's either got the nuts or nothing, and it's usually nothing. Villain is also decent TAG/sLAGish that likes to raise a decent amount pre... something like 25/17 or so.
He opens UTG, I call with 33, BB calls.
Flop ($75) K 2 2
BB checks, Villain checks, I bet $50, BB folds, Villain calls.
Turn ($175) 7o
Villain leads for $100, I make it $300 straight, he folds.
The plan for Tues/Wed is to play solid and build up some padding for Thursday when I'll be taking my shot at 5/10nl with Jay in my corner.
Wish me luck,
Aaron
Goals - LOL
So 3/6nl has gotten even more swingy since my last few posts...As the last post stated I had my worst single day loss ever, but thankfully the next day I went on an 8 buy in crusade to erase Sunday's tragedy...unfortunately since then I'm back down another 3-4 buyins and my total winnings for the month is a paltry $2800 or so in like 26,000 hands. Blah. Variance can be a bitch. But as alluded to in some previous posts, I'm handling it pretty well mentally. I still have visions (pipe dreams?) of taking some real shots at 5/10nl. Maybe the Peter Principle is at work, but I'm pretty confident I'm a winning player at 3/6nl and I'd like to progress my game to the point that I can hang at 5/10. We'll see.
The problem with moving to 5/10 is my winrate will almost certainly be worse at 5/10 than 3/6, which means higher variance and standard deviation. It's takes much less time to smooth out the "bumps" as a 5ptbb/100 winner than it is as a 2.5-3ptbb/100 winner (or whatever my "true" winrate could be at 5/10?). Any less than 2.5ptbb/100 and I think the variance coupled with the increased stakes would be too stressful to take.
Funny though, how relative the stakes are in poker. People who play 10/20nl or 25/50nl laugh at 5/10nl being such a cakewalk...where as I'd be scared of being crushed. Similarly, I'm sure 100nl is considered a tough step up to some, but I'm pretty confident I could crush it for 10ptbb/100+. If you hang around poker players enough (esp online players) you'll often get that rhetoric "oh the X/X*2 level is so easy, a monkey could beat it" but for most, there was at least some amount of struggling along the move up. For me, that's what helps keep me motivated to improve.
So, you're probably thinking, "Gee Aaron, after this month you should be really motivated!!" haha...touche. I've basically got a week to try to turn this month into something. We'll see what I can do...if I continue on this pace, it'll be the first month in a long time that I have not made more than my full time job. Sick huh?
The current plan is to run hotttt and stack lots of donks this weekend and hopefully by Thursday I'll have a few buyins that I can take to 5/10 with Jay in my corner
I'm at work now so when I get home I'll try to upload the latest monthly graph. It's pretty gross... still like 7k off my peak. I remember when I thought this month was going to be a repeat of last months' performance. Here's a big "LOL" at that one ;-)
Also, I think I want to redesign the look and feel of my site. I think it pretty much sucks...but I have no talent in color coordination or graphic design. I might even be willing to pay someone to make it look better. Email me or post a comment if you know someone who's up for the challenge.
Goal update:
26,000 / 40,000 hands played, all 2/4 and 3/6
0/1,000 hands at 5/10nl
$2800 / $20,000 (lol)
0/2 live sessions played
I suck at goals.
Aaron
Hmmm... time for plan B ?
Hmm, things aren't exactly going according to plan this month, as you can see above. As of about 5 minutes ago I'm busto on Full Tilt Poker from playing Heads Up 3/6nl cash games. I lost about $1500 in about 25 minutes primarily from 2 hands. First being where I chk raised this guy with 3c 4c on a 8c 8c 2h Ts board, he thinks forever and calls, then push all in on the river when my flush misses and he's got the 7c9c for the turned straight and higher club draw. oops. Second hand another guy sits, I'm about $550 deep or so. He's been minraising like a true donkey, so I know he's ready to stack off light. Two hands prior, I checkraised him w/ spade draw and over on a Ks Js x board, he mucked. This time, he minraises the button again, I call with A9. Flop Ac 9x Jc. I check, he bets, I checkraise, he reraises, I push and he calls. I can't wait to see his AK and hope my 2pair holds up, but then i realize he turns over JJ for the flopped second nuts. I compose a quick prayer prayer for the two outer -- but it falls on deaf ears. blah.Before that, I dropped $3000 on party where I managed to get no action except when their 2 outers hit or I was coolered. Standard.So for the entire 17 days of September I'm up a whopping $380. Yay for me. So whenever I get asked that infamous question of "What's the most you've ever lost in one day?" I can happy say my new record is -$4,479 on Sept 17th.Time to devise a plan B. "LOL"Aaron
Swingy 3/6 NL
So this month hasn't exactly gone according to plan. I'm well behind pace for all of my monthly goals.
To recap:
16,388 / 40,000 hands (3612 hands behind pace)
$2,717 / $20,000 (-$7283 behind pace -- LOL ... although I knew this would be a lofty goal, but still... LOL)
0/2 Live sessions played (-1 session behind pace)
0/1000 5/10 hands (-500 hands behind pace)
Despite some very rough nights, spirits are high. I've been playing pretty well I think, but hitting some hard variance. I think my mental state this month is better than any other in which I've hit big downswings. I've already had a -7 buyin downswing, -10buyin downswing, and my latest -6 buyin downswing as you can see per the graph. Over the last 5k hands I'm -12 buyins in total. Brutal.
I'm not going to pretend like there hasn't been any bad play, there certainly has although my most rough night was 2 nights ago when I got coolered and sucked out on left and right. Tonight was pretty bad as well, but it was more of a case of just not hitting the flop and picking poor spots to bluff.
If I get some time this weekend I'm going to pull out some of the big pots I've lost and put my bad plays up here for all to see. Should be entertaining, and hopefully educational. Despite things not going so hot, I'm very happy that my mental state has been superb this month. If you go back to March/April timeframe when I first moved up to 2/4 and got killed, there are some pretty down in the dumps posts. But I'm not facing hardly any of that now, and I think it shows growth as a player. Mental state is so important in poker, if you cannot keep an even keel it's very easy to spew chips. That's not to say I haven't tilted some or been a little off my game at other points, but it's not affecting me personally like it used to. This is so key if I ever expect to move up out of mid stakes.
As far as 'real life' goes... it's been a busy week. Our project at work that I'm pwning is starting to really ramp up, Missy and I have met with a wedding DJ (who sucked), got engagement pictures, went to a nice restaurant called BoneFish (got the Imperial Grouper -- except they forgot to cook it... big bite of raw grouper made my stomach turn), and tomorrow we meet with a realtor for the first time to look at some houses. Next week we meet with a mortgage broker to get pre-approved for a loan. Lots of stuff going on...hopefully I'll add winning at poker to the list next entry... ;-)
Take it easy,
Aaron
Still alive but behind pace
Hey so it's been a while since I've updated...so here's a quick one since I'm at work:
As far as my goals for the month go:0/2 Live sessions played.
9,000/40,000 hands played online, mostly at 3/6nl
$6500/$20,000
0/1000 hands played at 5/10nl
I had my biggest winning day ever on Saturday (+11 buyins or so), sandwiched between two -4 buyin days on Friday and Sunday.
Played the Party Million on Sunday, only to bust after two hours when I got it all in on the turn with 77 vs AA on a 8h 7h 5c 3s. I donkaments.Let's see what else... Still looking for a house in KC that is nice, in a decent area, and is located in a spot where both Missy and I can drive to work in a reasonable time. The problem being that most of my contracts will be either downtown or in Overland Park, and her job is about as far north as you can get. Yeah, I know what you're thinking... just play poker full time and it doesn't matter where you live. Trust me, it's crossed my mind a time or two. Perhaps if (sorta big if) I can prove to be a winner at 5/10nl by end of year it will be a bit more realistic.So I just realized that today is the anniversary of the WTC attacks. I didn't even realize it when creating the title of this post... so I guess this would be a good time to take a moment of silence for those who lost their lives in this trageic event. ...We should all be thankful that we're alive and well and keep in mind that any bad beat life deals us pales in comparison to the tragedy that occured five years ago.Aaron
