So I felt a little bit like Rocky this month. I managed to have the best month ever in terms of money won but it came with quite a beating at the end.
On Friday I was within $600 of having a $30k month, albeit not without quite a few ups and downs in the final 20,000 hands. Unfortunately I went on quite a bad run and as you can see from my graph below I was stuck about $12k from the 25,000 to 30,000 hand mark. It was pretty brutal. From there I made my previous blog entry on Monday where I was determined to make a rising comeback... well as you can see from the graph it didn't exactly turn out that way. Despite bringing my A game Monday and Tuesday I managed to only pull back around $3k or so to finish out the month.
But enough of the downer talk. I still made over $23,000 this month (some hands didn't make it into the graph for some reason?) - good for about $5k higher than my previous best, so I'm happy. I've got plenty of room for improvement in my game as the 5/10nl on Full Tilt Poker is quite a bit tougher than good ol' Party was.
One of the contributors of my ups and downs starting around the 13k hand mark was HU 3/6nl on Full Tilt. Certainly as mentioned before, I'm not exactly the cream of the crop at Heads Up, but I think I'm +EV in this game even though I finished down $3k in about 5,000 hands of 3/6 HU this month. Even if I'm -EV in this game, it's still a good exercise in hand reading and hell, you have to start somewhere. I'd like to continue working at my heads up game as I feel that I need another profitable angle when the 5/10 6max games aren't very good.
I'm going to try to make at least one good strategy entry this week, so someone bitch at me if it's not up by Friday ;-) I'll start things off by adding some potentially interesting commentary in this entry.
Here's a hand that I can't pass up posting up on my blog even though it's a cooler. Perhaps next year sometime I'll come back and see this and laugh about how crushed I was after this hand.
It's worth mentioning some of the background in this hand. If you read 2+2 or cardrunners, you've probably seen this already, but here it is:
Villain is 2+2'er tcorbin. We're on several tables together and, in general, respect each others play - although there's been some mild AIM trash talking going on in the session. In general this session I've been playing TAG oop and sLag'ish in position. I've taken a couple pots from him with some preflop 4 bets and made some sort of tricky turn play in a reraised pot vs him (he folded though so he didnt see). I think he's capable of making a bold move this deep.
It's also worth explaining some extra dynamics going on in this hand. As mentioned I had been 4-betting*** a fair amount prior to this hand. Also there was a MP player who posted a blind, which will increase my preflop raising range because of the extra dead money. So the poster calls (which they often do extra light, since they feel invested). tcorbin is smart, he knows my range gets increased with the dead money and he knows the poster is likely calling light -- therefore it's a pretty obvious place to squeeze with any two cards. After he makes the raise, I obviously know this, but I also know we're deep and I've got the second nuts. I want to get some money in pre while I probably have the best hand so I make it $600. tcorbin also knows that I know he can be squeezing here, which makes a 5-bet bluff on his part possible. We're deep and there's lots of room to maneuver and apply pressure. Despite a bluff not being out of the question, once he makes it $1600 I start to feel sick to my stomach.
Certainly I know he can have more than AA here, but the amount he can have those hands is unknown. In otherwords, his range isn't just {AA}. It's more like {AA, AK, QQ, air} -- but certainly the % for {AK, QQ} is up for debate. I'd bet that he has QQ here significantly less than AK or AA but I can't really quantify it. For the % of air, I'm not sure, but we can play around with some numbers to find out.
Let's run some quick numbers and for simplicity sake say we have $3k effective stacks.
For the easiest scenario, let's say his range is {AA, air} which might be closest to the truth. Air could include hands like AK and QQ which make it 1600 and then fold to my 6-bet push. Let's set up a quick EV calc to find out how often he must fold in order for my push to be zero EV assuming he only calls with AA after he 5-bets to 1600. There's currently $2255 in the pot ($10 post + $35 fat lizard + $10 big blind + $600 my 4-bet + $1600 his 5-bet).
English: Add together the times where I win the pot preflop with the times he calls me, but when he calls me i'm risking my 6-bet amount (2400) in order to win the current pot (2255) plus the amount villain calls (3000 stack - 1600 raise = 1400 left).
EV = (% he folds)(current pot) + (% he calls)[(win%)*(pot + villain's call) - (lose%)*(my 6bet)]
Make sense? :-)
Let x be the % he folds, then we'll solve for EV = 0.
EV = x($2255) + (1-x)[.187 *(2255 + 1400) - .813*(2400)] EV = 2255x + (1-x)[.187*(3655) - .813*2400] EV = 2255x + (1-x)[684 - 1951] (rounded) EV = 2255x + (1-x)[-1267] EV = 2255x + 1267x - 1267 0 = 3522x - 1267 1267 = 3522x x ~= 36%
So what this means is that he must fold 36% of the time for me to break even when I push all in over his raise to $1600 assuming he ONLY CALLS with AA. This 36% of the time would have to be comprised of total air and hands like AK/QQ which he decides not to call the push. Note, astute readers will realize that I've left out the other one combination, KK, which he'd probably call with preflop. Since it's only 1 combination I decided to ignore it for the purpose of these calcs.
Pokerstove time: If he wants to call, it'll be $1400 to win $4655 or a little better than 3:1. If he he has AK puts my range at {AA,KK} only, then he'd have to fold AK (19% equity) here and obviously any lower pair (18% equity). If he puts my range at {AA,KK,AK} then he can profitably call with AK (whopping 38% equity!). Sort of surprising AK fairs so well vs that range but you can check pokerstove for yourself if you don't believe me!
So after these calcs am I still happy with the push? ehhh, it's close. Most people on the boards I've posted on have advocated a push. Even if he only calls with AK or QQ a small percentage of the time, it would significantly help our equity and make things not so rough.
Perhaps I'll take Nov 1 off from poker and enjoy my good month before starting back in on the grind :-)
Play well,
Aaron
"You're gonna eat lightnin' and you're gonna crap thunder!" --Mickey from the Rocky movies
So listen up. Things have turned a bit shitty. But that's ok. I swung down 4k late last week but Friday night I felt good and decided to lay down some ownage on full tilt. I recoup'ed what I lost and some and was feeling good, down only $500 off my target for the month.
So then Saturday happens, like a quarterback being sacked from the blind side I drop 5k. Your typical littany of beats and bad play but I managed to stay off tilt. Sunday goes from bad to worse and I drop another 4.5k. So now I'm sitting 9.5k off my target for the month and two days left.
So enough of that shit. I'm feeling good and I'm going to put a hurtin' on the 5/10nl game tonight on FTP. Enough of this running bad shit. It's over with and time to rise up again and get this done. I'm usually not the type who is super confident, but tonight nothing is getting in my way.
So it's been a while since I've had any real updates to my blog. Because of that, I figured it's about time I throw something up here.
I went on quite a tear earlier this month at 5/10nl in the final days of Party Poker, but since then my progress has been stagnate, primarily because I'm trying to become a reasonable HU player at 3/6nl on FTP. I really love the HU tables FTP has but the sick variance coupled with the fact that I'm probably only marginally +EV in these games makes for a wild ride.
Last night I was truly on tilt for the first time in months. I'm not one of those guys that pretends to never let the suckouts or my own bad play effect me mentally -- however, I'm usually pretty good about settling down and digging in after a hand or two when multitabling. Last night, was one of those nights where I didn't have a chance to settle because the beats kept pouring on.
I've been fairly good at not turning this site into one big bad beat whine session -- and I have no intentions of changing that, so let's just end my recap of last night by outlining a quick recipe:
Heads Up Recipe for Disaster:
-Mix 2 parts setup hands -Sprinkle in 2 parts bad play -Add a dash of monkey tilt -Take current mixture and (bad) beat thorougly until all the lumps are smooth -Splash in failed bluffs.
Steam at 9,000 degrees farenheit and 40 minutes later you should have a wonderful -8 buyin session.
For all this complaining I've done, this month will still hopefully be a record setting one in terms of profit. A pretty amazing feat of running hot, considering I haven't played so few hands since last January. There's a monetary figure I want to hit by the end of the month, so we'll see if I can make it. I basically need to average $1k per day profit from here on out. We'll see if I can do it. It's possible as long as I don't have another session like last night.
So back to the grind at 3/6nl and 5/10nl on FTP. Actually I might even drop down to 2/4 for a while as the game selection seemed infinitely better than 3/6 and 5/10. Probably much less stress involved and easier games...but tougher to hit my arbitrary $ goal.
Perhaps one of these days I'll make a more content rich post with some of the HU hands I felt like I played well, and the ones I played poorly ;-)
Later, Aaron
P.S. I'd like to make a shout out to CardRunners member Lou Pinella - my new CR bud who surprisingly enough thinks this blog doesn't suck! :-)
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If you've been reading my blog at all, you know that Party is on it's way out and Full Tilt has postioned themselves to be the next major player in US Online Poker. It looks like Party, Paradise, Titan, and others will all be out of commission in the very near future, so it's time to move on to greener pastures.
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In the near future, I will be opening up a members-only online forum on +EV Poker.com where you can post questions, strategy, and even download some videos of me playing online poker while explaining my my every move! For high volume players, I'll even set aside some time to coach you in a real-time session!
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So things are going pretty well as I've moved up to 5/10nl. I'm running well and playing decently...probably on the weak/tight side of things. I made at least 2 bad folds that would have likely netted me 2 stacks, but I guess I'm just going to chalk that up to the growing pains of moving closer to "high" stakes.
I've toned down my positional "lagness" a bit... PT stats are running closer to 20/15 overall instead of the 23/17 or so I was at. It's keeping me out of some marginal spots which is good, since the stakes have nearly doubled what I was previously used to (at 3/6nl).
As per the usual, I'm playing too little when running well and I play too much when running poorly. I'm going to try to finish this week strong as Friday is the day that GWB signs the bill. I feel good about the state of internet poker but I know I'm going to miss Party Poker. I think Full Tilt will be fantastic new home though (more on this later).
Mom came into town this weekend and we had a great time. Her, Missy, and Missy's Mom, Grandma, and Sister went for a day of wedding dress shopping. Then on Sunday we watched some football and went house hunting. It was great to have Mom there as she knows a lot more about houses than I do and she always has a few questions that we couldn't think of. I think we might have found a real possibility for a house. It's a bit more than we wanted to spend (surprise, surprise) but I think it might be the one. It's got a lot of room for expansion if we want to finish the basement. We'll see what happens.
I bought X-Men 3 this weekend and watched it. If you're a fan of the other two I highly recommend this one. I never got into the comic books as a kid but I think the movies are excellent. I think it's the best of the 3, close behind X2 though. It's not very often that each movie of a series gets better.
I'm going to wait to post a graph of this month after the end of party poker. Let's hope I can keep my current pace going.
So never in my life have I voted democrat, but my future in-laws are elated that this online gambling legislation has brought about a paradigm shift in my views. Honestly, it's forced me to re-evaluate my previous stance on the Bush administration as a whole - including, but not limited to, the war in Iraq. There are some other "sleeper" issues that I've chosen to ignore (such as GW's stance on stem cell research) that help fuel this new anti-Bush, anti-religious right sentiment...and yes, it all started with their attempts to take away online poker. Pathetic? Maybe...but I'm not ashamed to admit it.
My new hero is Shelly Berkley (D-NV). I've gathered these comments from around the web, where I first saw them on ZeeJustin's blog and also a site I found called CardSquad.com. I thought many of you would enjoy reading some of her comments:
"It was more important to the Republican leadership to keep people from playing poker on their computers in their homes, than passing a defense bill . . . [so they attached it to the port security bill.] What does a ban on Internet gaming have to do with port security? Absolutely nothing. This section was added in an attempt to fire up the far-Right anti-gamingelement of the Republican party in time for this year's election. They couldn't sneak it into the defense bill, so they put it into the port security bill. What does banning Internet gaming have to do with port security? I can't think of a single thing. They actually prevented the conferees from meeting and offering amendments. That is taking partisanship to a new low, even in this congress where partisanship is the rule, and not the exception."
"I continue to be amazed by the members of this body who constantly rail against an intrusive federal government, and yet, when it comes to gaming, they are the first to call for more government intrusion," Berkley said. "A man's home is his castle unless he chooses to participate in online gaming. Then his home becomes the province of the federal government."
"The vast majority of states allow gaming and regulate it, whether it be lotteries, racing, card rooms, or casinos. This bill would make a legal activity illegal in those same states solely because it is done online rather than in a casino. In reality the intent of this bill is to attack and undermine legal gaming in our nation," said Berkley.
The word on the street is that Bush is going to sign this bill on Friday the 13th (no I'm not making that up, lol). It looks like some lines have been drawn in the sand as to which sites are going to keep US business and which aren't. Most notably, Party Poker isn't. There's been a lot of talk about who the next major player will be, and many think it's going to be Full Tilt Poker.
Now that things have settled a bit since last week when all this madness was announed, I'm feeling much better about the state of online poker. I'm pretty sure it's here to stay and somehow it will survive (yes, even for the casual gambler - the most important piece of this entire puzzle). It appears things with intermediary banking services (ie Neteller, Firepay) will be unhindered. If that's the case, I don't think much will change. Gamblers will find a way to gamble...and I want to make sure there's a seat open for them at my table.
So Southern Miss lost last night to University of Tulsa 20-6. The score is a bit deceiving though as the game was 7-6 through most of the game and then 13-6 deep into the 4th quarter. We had a chance but our offense couldn't score. It was really similar to last week's game where an interception for a touchdown by our defense proved to be the difference maker.
We had a hard time slowing Tulsa down, but with so many weapons at their disposal it was hard to cover every angle. They racked up a lot of yards but only 7 points through 3 quarters so what can you? We can't stop them every time. I'm not sure why we got away from our running game where we have the most experience offensive line in the country and the best true freshman runningback. Tulsa did move the ball on us a lot, but the defense was on the field the entire night after the offense went 3-and-out time and time again.
So as for updates on the online poker situation -- no one really knows anything yet. Party is still planning to shut off US accounts (definition of 'shut off' is still a bit vague) as soon as GWB signs the bill. I've got most of my money cashed out now but I've left some in there to continue playing 5-10nl until the last minute. I've read that some sites that are shutting down American accounts are going to cut their players a check to get mailed to them. I think I'd rather get my money out of there before they can say "the check is in the mail."
I have a feeling Full Tilt Poker might become the next "Party." They seem to do enough advertising and have some good things to offer the fish...A nice sign up bonus, the pros often on the site that you can "learn, chat, and play with." Plus they have rakeback. So far FTP has said they won't shut off any American access.
It seems like there's never any time anymore...Always something going on between work, house hunting, wedding planning, football games, random weekend activities, etc. I think I'm really going to regret not making time to play as much on Party as I can before the switch turns off. It's highly unlikely there will be another cash cow like Party in the near future...yet I consistently spend time doing neutral or -EV activities when I should be pumping as many hours as I can 6+ tabling on party...
I'm not sure when GWB is supposed to sign the bill but if anyone hears please let me know.
PartyGaming said in a statement: "If the President signs the act into law, the company will suspend all real money gaming business with U.S. residents, and such suspension will continue indefinitely"
This is real bad, obviously. If you've been living under a rock for the past few days (or rather, you're not regularly visiting poker forums) you might not know that Senator Frist R-Tenn slapped some anti-online gambling legislation onto the end of the port security bill, in an 11th hour effort to drop his fascist right wing religious morality hammer onto my head.
Fuck that guy and the religious right and their morality police. WHY THE FUCK DO THEY WANT TO MEDDLE IN OUR LIVES. QUIT TRYING TO SAVE US FROM OURSELVES. ALL THIS DOES IS DRIVE PEOPLE AWAY FROM YOUR MORALITY MESSAGE. WHY CAN'T YOU SEE THAT?
The legislation doesn't explicitly make playing poker online illegal. Instead, it attacks the funding methods. In particular, no credit cards transfers or EFT bank transfers to online gambling or related entities (potentially, neteller, firepay, etc).
So I suggest that all of you who have money in party poker and aren't keeping up on all this immediately cash out. I think you can only take out 10k per day, so some of you better get cracking...
11:59 AM: So it looks like you can cash out 10k per transfer from Party to Neteller. The transfers typically take a couple hours, but I can only imagine with the mass exodus of Party withdraws, it could take much longer.
I wonder how much Party has in liquid assets and what percentage of the total account money is comprised of medium/high stakes pros vs your random low stakes fish. Certainly the pros and regular players will be following this much closer and therefore more likely to yank their cash this morning. This whole thing has the potential of destroying online poker if Party decides to freeze a bunch of money. I'm not sure if the industry could ever recover -- mostly because of the fears of the casual player. Just think of how many tens of thousands of random fish have no clue about any of this legislation or party's stance on it.
What a mess.
More updates to come throughout the day as more information becomes available...
So I felt a little bit like Rocky this month. I managed to have the best month ever in terms of money won but it came with quite a beating at the end. 
