Worst. Week. Ever!
So I said I wasn't going to turn my blog into a bad beat whine session, but alas I'm going to renege on my intentions and post about my new worst day and week ever!
The image to the left is a graph starting last Sunday, when we got back from Thanksgiving at my folks. The image below is my PT screenshot from today, my worst day eva! Click 'em to enlarge.
Here are some of the fun hands from my worst day ever!
Here's one vs CTS No, the limp reraise isn't standard. Yes, I had my reasons.
3 outs = a lock
He was semi bluffing to 2 outs lol I almost got away on the turn, and also on the river fearing 8's full or 2's full, but the raise on the flop is bullshit so often in this game.
Same guy, different 2 outer
AI w/ my set! ship it! ... to him :-(
AI w/ top two! ship it! ... to him :-(
15% of your stack w/ a mid pair? no problem! I'm told this guy is one of the best pokerstars 5/10 players. Too bad I've been running him over. Except when he flops sets.
Then mixed in there were lots of -$300 to -$400 hands where i'd reraise pre, miss, and cbet only to be checkraised all in. Also a few minor suckouts I didn't include that were in the -$400 per hand range.
Here's my PT screenshot for this session. Yay!
Just for "fun" here are a few more hands from earlier in the week that i enjoyed:
Preflop action iz teh lol Fun preflop, not so much post. Look at all the dead monies :-(
Quit bluffing retards kthx
Hit one time plz
One of my favs vs a popular 2+2er
Everyone wants their piece
Everyone wants their piece of the pie... and they want it as big as possible.
Profound huh? Obviously this comes as a shock to no one, but anytime you're in the midst of negotiations, the reminder is big and bold. We're trying to close a deal on a house that we really like. It's a quite a bit more than our original price range, but we really love the house and want it to work out. Most of the other stuff we've seen is either crap or not worth what they're asking.
We're buying a new house that has already been built but unoccupied. We're trying to balance what we hear about the real estate markets on the east and west coast and what the realities are in the midwest. We've found that in the midwest, there aren't so many "steals" as there are on the coasts because the market here never took the huge spike as it did on the coasts. Subsequently, there aren't massive price slashings going on either. We've managed to get this builder down a bit on his price but he's not going any further, so now it's up to the realtors to make it happen. I'm trying to get our realtor who, by all accounts is an idiot, to release 1.5% of her commission (she gets 1/2 of the 6% split with the builder's realtor). Sure, that's a sizable chunk of her commission, but she's been basically worthless as we found and scouted the house, made 2 offers on it through her (builder wouldn't budge on price), and now I've personally called him which resulted in a price drop. Basically she's done very little in this process except draft some contracts and except piss off the realtor's agent and jeopardize the whole deal.
Unfortunately, she's too dumb to realize all this. I know I'm being a bit ambiguous but to explain everything that's happened would take multiple entries. What all this boils down to is that our realtor is too dumb to realize:
A) Without all our legwork, we wouldn't even be in a position to make an offer on this house.
B) She's dumb and therefore tasks that should take her a short amount of time end up taking her a lot of time
C) As a result of B, she thinks she's "worked hard" and therefore deserves all of her commission
D) As a result of C, the deal might fall through, which means she gets nothing and we don't get our house for a fair price.
So to all of you who are going to be first time homebuyers in the future, my advice to you is either work without a buyer's agent (if you can find something good FSBO or direct from a builder) OR interview a few agents and find someone you have confidence in. Smart, business savvy, and a good talker are all vital traits of a realtor. Oh yea, and don't hire a realtor who is a family friend, because if things aren't working out it's that much harder to drop them like a bad habit.
Living and learning,
Aaron
Have you ever noticed...?
I was doing some thinking the other day (for once) and I came to the conclusion that people are funny... Here are some things that I've noticed lately that are kind of different.
Have you ever notice that when people say "That's what I'm talkin' about!!!" that they were never talking about anything prior? You see and hear this all the time, and it's usually out of no where. The most recent occurance I saw was two nights ago on a rerun of a WSOP event where some guys spouts off in broken english "dahhtts wooot U'mm tahhhkinn bouuut!!!!" and pumps his fist. Sure, in this instance, we have no idea if he was truly talking about "that" but I think it's a safe assumption that he wasn't. In fact, I would be willing to lay at least 8:1 that everytime I hear this phrase, the offender actually wasn't talking about "that" before using the expression. If you're guilty of overusing this expression, especially in cases where you really weren't talking about "that", I encourage you to re-evaluate your stance on this phrase.
Have you ever notice that when people (I do this all the time) say "how's it going?" as a greeting to an acquaintance (someone not as close as a friend), they generally don't really care how it's going? It's just a substitute for "hello". And then, do you ever notice that after asking "how's it going?" some of these acquaintances actually answer with how things are really going -- with more than just short sentence? There's this guy at work who has the last name of a famous canned soup company. People have coined a phrase when he traps you in a conversation. It's known as "getting Soup'd." He's a perfect example of one of these guys that doesn't understand that when people (who are less than friend status but greater than total strangers) ask you "how's it going?" they don't really want to know how it is going. They are just acknowledging your presence. Since I sit near the breakroom, I have the pleasure of hearing an exchange such as the following almost daily:
Random coworker: "Hey man how's it going?"
Soup guy: "Oh man well you'd never believe what suzie said about the latest billing report and then I had this phone call from a cust-"
Random coworker: "oh yea--ok--"
Soup guy interrupts really loudly: "SO THEN THEY SAID ... (on and on)"
Rndom coworker: "ya uh gotta go, see ya"
Soup guy continues to talk as if someone else is listening.
Don't be this guy.
Have you ever noticed that when it's unseasonably hot outside, people always bring up Global Warming? Yes I know the main problem is the difference in a few degrees at the poles and the glacial ice melting, etc, but I've heard people bring it up on multiple occasions -- but only when it's hot outside wherever they live. Have you noticed when it's unseasonably cold outside where you live, no one ever talks about Global Warming?
That's all I've noticed lately.
Have a good thanksgiving, Missy and I will be in the dur-tay south in Jackson, MS visiting the fam for turkey day... so no poker or blogging for a week or so.
Later,
Aaron
My name is Inigo Montoya...
Friday night was probably the craziest night of poker I've ever had. The ups, downs, and eventual recovery was something I haven't yet experienced as I managed to swing around $17,000 in various directions (5 up, 6 down, 6 up again) through about 5 hours of play.
The games were incredible, even by old Party Poker 5/10nl standards. There were more
donators out than I've EVER seen on FTP and the games on PS were quite good as well. To make things better, a lot of the good regulars weren't on. The harvest was plentiful and the fish were virtually jumping in my boat...that is, until the ship started to sink...
I started off pretty well crushing everything in my sight and ran up to about +$6k after my first 1400 hands. Things were going as planned. I was making good hands and getting paid off in ridiculous spots. Then not much later, the fish bit back and over the next 700 hands or so I dropped everything I had won.
Check out this hand. It's a testiment to how good the games were. Despite getting my money in as a 2:1 favorite with my monster draw (20 outs twice), the turn and river go blank-blank and he takes it down with his 94o. Check out the awesome chat afterwards:
WiltOnTilt: incredible
WUSU: Wow I thought Wilt had a set
WiltOnTilt: If you thought I had a set, why did you call with a pair of 9's?
Other guy: LOL
Good times. But wait, there's more!
After dropping back down to even I held steady for a few hundred hands and was generally pretty irritated at the negative variance that occured. Then one of my favorite FTP fish, Tomitivo, sat down. He's one of these 45/22 guys who thinks he's great but he's absolutely dreadful, yet still manages to talk in the chat as if he's God's gift to poker. It doesn't matter if he gets outplayed, he sucks out, or gets sucked out on, he always has something to say after each hand he's in. Pretty amazing. I think he thinks he's "getting people off their game" or "getting them on tilt" but in reality you'd have to be pretty far off your game to be -EV against him.
So I'm ignoring him in the chat as I typically do, until I see him get real nasty with another fish at the table that happens to have about 3 buyins infront of him. Typically these guys know they aren't winners and so when they get up they like to quit...and when they get berated it only adds to their motivation to stop while ahead. Anyway, this jackass Tomitivo just won't stop on this guy calling him a fag and a "lucky pos" (one of his favorite lines) among other things. Since I don't want another donator to leave, I pipe up in the chat:
WiltOnTilt: Tom, lay off the guy and let him play his game
Tomitivo: stfu wilt your just a lucky pos anyway
WiltOnTilt: Tom, you can say what you want, but you know and I both know I stack you everytime we play
Tomitivo: think u r so tough huh? how about some HU ?
WiltOnTilt: name the stakes
Tomitivo: 10/20
WiltOnTilt: I'm already waiting
About 3-4 minutes pass and I figure he's not showing up. Now keep in mind I've never played higher than 5/10nl in my life, so although I'm a bit nervous at the increased stakes, I'm certainly not going to pass up the opportunity to get a trash talking fish 1-on-1 and double my EV by doubling the stakes.
Finally he shows up and buys in. On the first hand I've got 8c6c and I opened the button. He min-reraises me and I call. Flop Qh 9c 7c giving me the open end straight flush draw. He pots it and I push. He folds. I wanted to set the tempo early for the match and I'm sure he's got nothing here the vast majority of the time. Easy push.
A bit later, this hand happens. Most of the time I'm raising this flop, but I'm not too worried about spades and they aren't going to scare him away. I'd like to see how he reacts on the turn before making a decision. Again, most of the time he's got nothing and I'm sure he's got the 86c hand still in his mind. Here's some chat following this hand:
Dealer: WiltOnTilt wins the pot ($1,679.50)
Dealer: Hand #1265184570
tomitivo: lucky idiotttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttttt
lol, ok Tom. Your ten high or whatever is no good.
So he raised a few times pre and I folded. He'd show me some trash, I guess to try to tilt me? Anyway I laughed and not much later this hand came up. Again he loves the min reraise pre. Obviously I'm calling there w/ any hand I open. On the turn when he checks, he has a 6 here or a big pair never, so I know my K is good, sometimes my 5 will be good, and obviously a heart is good, and since he has nothing the vast majority of the time, I go ahead and bet to get him off A high (he wont fold this always). On the river I hit one of my outs and proceeded to get paid. Note I took the same line as the KJ hand, and this time he paid off pretty damn light. Here's the resulting chat:
Dealer: Hand #1265185197
Dealer: WiltOnTilt shows a flush, King high
Dealer: WiltOnTilt wins the pot ($3,993.30) with a flush, King high
tomitivo: mf idiot
tomitivo: omg
tomitivo: wow
tomitivo: u r the stupidiest lucky pos i have ever seen
WiltOnTilt: u gonna keep barking doggy or you gonna bite?
WiltOnTilt: i understand if you're busto
WiltOnTilt: it's ok
(few meaningless hands later, and out of no where he starts up with this out of no where)
Dealer: Hand #1265194310
tomitivo: cs little pos lucky fck
Dealer: WiltOnTilt wins the pot ($40)
Dealer: Hand #1265194701
tomitivo: so digusting
tomitivo: close your eyes and pray
tomitivo: every single time
tomitivo: they hit so few outs
tomitivo: every single time
tomitivo: what a stupid fck
Dealer: tomitivo shows a pair of Sixes
Dealer: tomitivo wins the pot ($119.50) with a pair of Sixes
Dealer: Hand #1265196517
tomitivo: dumb idiot
Dealer: tomitivo wins the pot ($20)
Dealer: Hand #1265196866
tomitivo: it is truly scary how stupid u r
tomitivo: but so lucky
LOL
And now the final nail in the coffin. Here was the final hand of the match. He opens on the button. I've got a good but not great hand in ATo. Certainly this is ahead of his range, but he's so tilted now I don't want to build a big pot oop with this hand, so I just call and flop gin. Thankfully he's got top two and is going broke. Sure, this hand is sort of a "setup", and I'd go broke if I was in his shoes as well, but it's still damn funny to lay the smack down on this douche bag. Here's the resulting chat. Enjoy!
Dealer: tomitivo shows [Qs Kc]
Dealer: WiltOnTilt shows [As Td]
Dealer: tomitivo shows two pair, Kings and Queens
Dealer: WiltOnTilt shows a straight, Ace high
Dealer: WiltOnTilt wins the pot ($4,158.50) with a straight, Ace high
tomitivo: mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmfffffffffffffffffff liucky pos idiot
tomitivo: omg
tomitivo: do u program for this site?
tomitivo: wow
tomitivo: this is truly fcked up
tomitivo: wow
tomitivo: how many times can i get cold decked?
tomitivo: and it is always by some stupid moron
tomitivo: it wouldn't be bad if it was someone who at least had a clue
WiltOnTilt: tom, on thursday i'll be giving thanks for people like yourself
tomitivo: i feel sorry for u
WiltOnTilt: please, never change
tomitivo: i wont
tomitivo: please be careful when u cross the street
WiltOnTilt: ok
tomitivo (Observer): i dont want your luck to run out
tomitivo (Observer): it if breaks even
tomitivo (Observer): u are sure to be hit by a car
tomitivo (Observer): i really dont want that to happen
tomitivo (Observer): u may not think i am serious
tomitivo (Observer): but i am
WiltOnTilt: thanks tom, i appreciate your kindness
tomitivo (Observer): please be careful
tomitivo (Observer): no problem
tomitivo (Observer): i like you
I think this guy is freaking bi-polar. Anyway, I love just sitting there and letting him rant and then coming in with a nice quip to put him in his place. I don't think this is what the pilgrims had in mind at the first thanksgiving, but as I'm enjoying some of Mom's turkey on Thursday, I'll take a moment of silence for Tom and his $5300 that he ended up donating to me. Did I get a lot of good hands? Sure. Should he have paid me off on any of them but one? No of course not. Unfortunately he left after this last chat, but I'm sure we'll meet again someday.
Later,
Aaron
Is coaching worth it?
I get asked this question quite a lot, especially by some people I've met on Cardrunners.com. Depending on the stage of your poker career, I think the answer varies. I'd like to address this issue here because I think many people are in a place in their poker life that it really makes sense to get a coach.
First, a bit about how I started with having coaching sessions. As many of you know, jkrantz (KRANTZ on 2+2) is my poker coach, and has been since sometime in late May/early June. At the time I was a proven winner at $1/$2 No Limit and I had moved up to $2/$4 NL on party and I was having some stagnate results. I felt like I knew a lot, and I had worked real hard on my own, but I just wasn't seeing the results I felt I should. I knew ABC poker and the standard lines for most spots, but I really couldn't seem to improve my game. In short, I was plateauing in my poker development.
After hiring jkrantz, it didn't take long to find out how much more there was to learn (this is true to this day). When I started, he felt I was solid, but not really someone to be feared at the table. As time went on, he taught me how to elevate my game into more than just basic hand reading and standard lines. We delved into theory and strategy of playing a more LAG (or sLAG) style and how to exploit the players who played like I had -- much too ABC and predictable. With this paradigm shift, it was important for me to change my hand reading a bit and to take more consideration into my table image. It didn't take long for people to start playing back at me and put me in spots I wasn't necessarily used to being in...Before when I was playing tight/ABC, if someone played back at me it's usually because they had the goods. After taking upon a more aggressive style, it was important to shift that a bit as people were getting frustrated and fed up with my aggression.
After learning these new strategies and more advanced hand reading, it allowed me to progress up the levels much faster than I would have been able to on my own as well as giving me a better understanding of what was going on when reading some of the hands posted in the HSNL forum on 2+2. There was a lot more to consider than what was on the surface, and jkrantz was instrumental in my progression.
So, should you get a coach? I think the answer to this question is different for everyone, but here are some considerations you should make:
1) Do you feel like you've learned all you can on your own? Do you read/post/study any online poker forums? Have you read all the books out there? How much time do you go through poker tracker on your own? If the answer to these questions is "No" or "very little" then I think before you get a coach, work these practices into your poker time.
2) Can you beat at least $0.50/$1 NL ? Through the beginning levels, especially .10/.25 and .25/.50, tight play takes the cake. You don't need to play fancy in order to beat these games. If you're not beating these levels then you aren't doing enough of #1. A coach can certainly help you here, but you must be comfortable with fronting a lot of money now that you'll repay yourself later.
3) Do you have the bankroll? How much extra money in your bankroll can you part with before you'd have to drop in stakes? Coaching must be viewed as an investment, and trust me, it will pay dividends. You won't find this level of ROI on Wall Street, I promise you that.
4) Are you really as good as you think you are? Let me give you a hint: The answer is No.
Where do you find a coach? Undoubtedly the best place on the net is http://www.3-bet.net/. This site is run by my coach, jkrantz. I'd like to mention that I'm in no way affiliated with them except that krantz is my coach. i don't get anything for plugging his site or talking about him in my blog.
I've had interactions with most of the 3-bet.net coaches either through reading their posts on 2+2 or by talking with them on AIM/2+2 PMs. I don't think you can go wrong choosing any of the coaches there. They will surely take your game to new levels by not only showing you things you didn't know, but also reinforcing what you already know.
So is it worth it? Let's look at a hand I played during one of my coaching sessions with jkrantz. It's a perfect example of how much more there is to learn and how coaching often pays for itself IMMEDIATELY.
Villain in this hand is pretty bad, and one of the reasons I'm at the table. I believe his stats were something like 45/22, so he was raising quite a bit preflop. He was much too loose postflop as well. Effective stacks: $1164.
I open 5
5
UTG+1 to $35. SB calls, Villain calls in the BB.
Flop ($115) 2
4 8
Not a bad flop at all. sb checks, villain checks, I bet $80, sb folds, Villain calls.
Turn ($275) 3
Villain checks, I check for pot control reasons. I very well could be ahead here, but I've got a hand that has showdown value and I turned an open end straight draw, so getting a free card has the upside of letting me catch up if I'm behind, inducing a bluff on the river, or keeping the pot smaller if I'm behind allowing myself to showdown.
River ($275) 8
Villain leads for $100. Well getting 3.75:1 I felt this was an easy call. As I said to jkrantz. Right before I click the call button he said "Wait, I think you can squeeze some value out here." I'm like wahhh??? What's he calling me with? jkrantz said "Dude I really think he's got a 4, and I think he's paying off. I'm like "no way, really? ... I don't think he calls with worse...but if you say so."
I make it $300. Villain thinks for a few seconds, and finally calls. He shows 5 4. JKrantz took this clown to valuetown and I was impressed.
That hand, in and of itself, paid for my coaching session that night. I talked earlier about how coaching was an investment for the long haul of your poker career, but often it pays off that very night. I would have NEVER made that value raise on the river. Not in a million years. The call was standard, I knew that... but he just squeezed an extra $200 off a guy who had 54o for middle pair. If you weren't convinced before, I don't see how you can deny that having someone as talented as jkrantz around is a no brainer.
Good Luck,
Aaron
On the bright side: Rivers of Royalty
Do you believe in a self fulfilling prophecy? Kind of eerie how after my previous entry was composed of the exact words I needed to tell myself to help dig in and push through some crummy runs. I'm trying to determine how much of my latest variance is a result of tougher games instead of your run of the mill tough luck. I don't have a multitude of one or two outers to complain about, but my recent crummy results have been a result of getting checkraised out of my seat everytime I try to cbet in a reraised pot, or simply having a good second best hand in a monster pot, or the action killing card that peels off on the turn. There have certainly been some quick deaths, as you can see in the sharp downward slopes in many points of my graph below, but there's also plenty of slower declines of just bleeding chips. Take last night. For the first 3 or 4 hours, I didn't get stacked once, but I was down $3,000. Minus 300-400 (or worse) in every reraised pot, or getting checkraised huge when I've got an overpair an a bad turn card comes, or simply a good player rebluffing me in a sizable pot.
But I don't intend to focus on that stuff for this entry. A couple nights ago I was happy to find a fun silver lining in my dark cloud of a session. I had been getting torn up on PokerStars 5/10nl that night, until the following hand comes up. I'm $1600 deep (effective stacks) with the biggest donkey at the table. His screenname is "notyetfamous" -- well since you've now appeared in my blog, your name no longer applies ;-)
I open (again) to $35 UTG+1 with A J. I've been playing sLagish, around 25/17 or so. All folds to the SB (45/15ish) who makes the call.
Flop ($80) Q Q 7
SB checks, I check.
This is certainly a fine flop to continuation bet, and most times I will. I think I checked because this guy was so loose he's calling me with any pair any draw and he can checkraise me here with a lot of stuff. I was mostly just irritated at missing the flop again for the 149830289th time this session, so I checked. whatever.
Turn ($80) T
Interesting card... all of a sudden I've got a few outs.
SB checks, I bet $55. I'd like to just take it down here, hopefully he's got nothing and he'll just give up.
SB calls. I put him on some sort of draw here. I think it's unlikely (but possible) he's got a queen or better because most times he's leading the turn with a queen and probably a ten too. Seems like a draw is more likely, perhaps lower diamonds, clubs, or a pocket pair that just doesn't believe me.
River ($190) K
NO WAY. Let me double check here, do I really have a Royal Flush? Hot damn I haven't had one of those in like 2 years. Even then it was a 1 card royal (4 on the board). Sweet...I sure hope he's got something.
SB bets $100.
WHAT? What the hell does he have? Lower diamonds right? gotta be? Is he somehow Full ? Is he bad enough to slowplay trips ? I decide to go for the home run hit and push in for another $1400 into a $290 pot.
SB calls and shows K Q for the rivered boat.
SHIP IT HOLLA!
So I think it's important to talk for a second why I pushed and didn't try to squeek a "sure thing" raise out of him. Based on how the hand was played and how bad he is, I felt like he's either got a bluff (or hand that cannot fade a raise) or a hand that is going all the way. This guy is never folding any full house here and it's likely based on the action that the river improved his hand, likely from one of the draws hitting (J9, diamonds). Look for spots like this that I like to say "he's either calling or he's not" -- and maximize the value here. Even if I lose out on some "milking" raises if he has one of the only marginal hands that might not call (KJ turned OESD rivered TP, or KT), he only has to call my push a small % of the time for it to be higher EV than a small milking bet.
These spots occur so often at the lower stakes where people just cannot help themselves from clicking the call button. I really think one of the stronger aspects of my game is recognizing these spots and pushing huge into small pots when I either crush them by getting paid off or they fold (which they would have to a smaller bet, ie a busted flush draw). The upside in these spots is so huge.
When he leads into me on the river for 1/2 pot, I think there's at least a 70% chance that he's got a hand that he's willing to go all the way with (call this category A). Remember, this guy is a donkey and like many donkeys, their biggest weakness is calling far too liberally. So of the remaining 30%, he probably has a 2 pair hand (such as KJ, KT) about 20% (category B) of the time and the other 10% is just a pure bluff (category C). I think this guy would pay off a smallish raise to $300 with groups A and B, and he won't call anything extra with group C hands. If I push my $1400 into a $290 pot, I think he'll now fold group B hands and obviously C hands, but A hands are calling. So let's do some quick math here to see what the highest EV is.
For completion's sake, I'll restate that we have the stone cold nuts, so in these EV calcs we don't have to worry about the times we raise and we lose.
Calling frequencies:
Group A: 70%
Group B: 20%
Group C: 0%
EV($300 raise) = (A * $300) + (B * $300) + (C * $300) [to cover his entire range]
EV($300 raise) = (.70 * $300) + (.20 * $300) + (0 * $300)
EV($300 raise) = 210 + 60 + 0
EV($300 raise) = $270
EV($1400 raise) = (.70 * $1400) + (0 * 1400) + (0 * 1400)
EV($1400 raise) = $980
So it's pretty easy to see that a push here has a much higher expectation based on the assigned percentages I've given him. How about a more meaningful question now. How infrequently would he have to call with group A hands in order for a push to be equal to a "milk him" raise of $300?
Not too hard to figure out. Let x stand for the percentage of time he needs to call.
EV($300 raise) = x * $1400 + 0 + 0
$270 = 1400x
x = 19%
So he only has to call my push 19% of the time in order for it to be the SAME EV as my milker raise to $300. Surprised? See the power of a push. He can fold lots and lots and it'll still be wayyy higher EV long term when you maximize your win vs the strongest hands in his range. So often, beginners think in terms of "how much can I win on this hand?" or "I don't want to lose my customers!" -- but in reality you are much better off thinking "Given this situation, what's my best action to maximize my earn vs his range?". If his range is heavily weighted to strong second best hands or he can call real light, it's pretty easy to see how a huge overbet push can maximize EV. It's also worth noting that when someone gets owned like this, it's often a tilt inducer, which can net you more future EV spots vs these players. Get the donkey's money before the other TAGs and good LAGs do!
This entry is getting long. I plan on doing a write up soon about this sick value raise that jkrantz at 3-bet.net had me make. People often ask me if coaching is worth it...well let's just say that jkrantz's advice on this particular hand paid for my entire session with him. If you're on the fence about getting a coach, jump down and look up the boys at 3-bet.net.
Play well,
Aaron
Mini rant and a hand
So I didn't have a chance last week to add any fun or interesting hands and I'm at work now so I dont have PT with me... Things have been sort of up and down. I dropped like 3 buyins last night so I'm up like 3500 right now for the month, which, being over a week into the month isn't that great. Not terrible but not great, considering I've been playing mostly 5/10nl.
The games have just been crap for the most part. "Just learn to beat the regulars" they say ... or "the TAGs are so easy to play against" or "so-and-so is terrible and exploitable". Surf around some poker forums or chat with some online poker players on AIM and it won't be long until you hear this stuff over and over just in different verbiage.
I think it's kind of funny to hear this stuff. While what they say is often true to a degree, it's almost universally overblown. It used to bother me but now I mostly just laugh when hearing it. You rarely get much of an answer when you ask for an elaboration on the ways to exploit them or, if you do, it's so broad that it's obvious. The other great one is "check out this hand history, boy (insert name of known big winner here) is terrible!" LOL get real man.
There's so much ego in poker that so often your toughest opponent is yourself and your own state of mind. Of course it's not always from overconfidence as many of these above paraphrased quotes might suggest. Often my biggest problem is under-confidence and not trusting my reads. The funny thing with poker and ego is that it can be so polar. During a good run many (myself included) fall victim of feeling on top of the world. Our reads are on, we're acting on them, and we're winning. We're crushing the competition and feel invincible.
Well guess what happens next?
A bad run hits. We keep correctly pushing small (or incorrectly, non-existent) edges that were working out while the times were going well. All of a sudden they aren't coming through now. And worse, we push huge edges and they don't work out either. Maybe while raking in all that money earlier, we forgot to evaluate our play. Maybe some bad habits were acquired but masked by the upward slope of the latest graph. Either way, things have taken a sharp downturn so we're left asking why? Do I suck? Was I getting lucky that whole time? Do I really know what I think I know? Maybe the whole foundation of my gameplan is flawed? On and on. We're no longer trusting our well founded reads and in an effort to turn things around we get either overly tight or overly loose. Too passive (oh my big draws never hit i'll just call...) or too aggressive (I've been playing nitty -- surely they've noticed so he can't call my push with top pair...). Somehow you have to get back on track.
Usually that's when a trusted source, (such as jkrantz for myself) has to come in and calm the nerves by reinforcing the good plays and steering your poor plays back on track.
I'm not really sure what brought that whole rant on, I'm not really running that badly right now. I'm currently on like 20k hands break even but that's nothing compared to some other runs I've been on. I feel like I'm playing pretty well but sometimes I still have problems trusting my reads at 5/10nl on FTP.
Here's a hand for an example. This one happened last night. I've had somewhat mixed opinions on what to do on this river but deep down I knew what the right answer was in the heat of battle...
I've been playing sLAG around 25/17 or so and I raise on the button for $35 after a limper with J9. 45/15 donkey calls in the sb, and the big blind folds. We're about $1500 deep or so.
Flop ($85) K K T
Villain check, I make a standard cbet $65, he calls.
At this point I'm putting him on a pretty wide range. He can have a K, T, Ax, pocket pair, or QJ. This guy is definitely capable of calling with any of these and when I cbet a flop of this texture, I'm planning to fire a second barrel a lot here since he can (and will, being a donkey) call with so many hands.
Turn ($215) 7
Villain checks again, I fire again for $155. The thought here is it should be enough to get him off a small pair, ace high, QJ sometimes and a weak T sometimes. I expect him to raise with a K a lot and sometimes call again.
Villain min-raises to $310. In case you missed it, I've got a double gutter (8 or Q is good for the straight), so I'm calling $155 to win $680, or a bit better than 4:1, which is what i need to call for my straight. Sure, sometimes I'll be drawing dead here but if he's checkraising his K here on the turn it's with the intention of stacking off with it on the river, and we've got another $1000 behind for me to win if I do in fact hit my straight.
River ($835) 2
Villain checks (wtf??) Why is he checking here? If he had the K he was representing on the turn, surely he's firing again. Donkeys, from my experience, rarely would check raise for value on the turn only to slow way down when called and a blank hits. Something is fishy... but what to do. I've got about $1k left. If he was checkraising "for value" with a T on the turn, is he really giving up so easily ? That means it's probably a pure bluff right? QJ seems possible for this, but I have a J so it's a bit less likely. hmmm...
Poof, on my left shoulder in a puff of smoke appears the ghost of Stuey Ungar. He whisper's in my ear: "Push it Aaron, he cannot stand the heat. That type of player doesn't check minraise and the turn and then check the river with trips or better. No way he has it, he's afraid you do! Shove!"
Poof, on my right shoulder is a familar sight. It's the image of myself from two years ago. Weak and tight: "LOL are you crazy? You realize you've already spewed off 1.5 buyins tonight on failed bluffs right? Who cares if they weren't on this table, you just gave that money away! You want to do that again? Didn't you see this guy is a 45/15 donkey, YOU AREN'T SUPPOSED TO BLUFF DONKEYS! Turn check minraises mean STRENGTH! Check it!"
So after deliberating for about 10 seconds I looked left, then looked right....finally I clicked the check button and gave up. Stuey looks at the results and shakes his head. Poof, both images leave.
Villain shows 88 and takes it down.
Ugh. I knew it... but I didn't have enough trust in my reads... and of course I can't manage to hit a J, 9, T, or Q for the better hand. Such a shame.
Aaron
